Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
