A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
